BayWatch Magazine – Property Values | January 1, 2018
The Real Season Begins
Welcome back to Bonita Bay! The holiday season has come to an end and now the real ‘season’ begins! The season for this idyllic weather and the peak time of year for real estate activity.
Every real estate season takes on a tone and life of its own, so what will happen in 2018? Well let’s take a look at what we are working with. There are presently 103 resale properties for sale, 24 pending sales, and there were 13 closed sales in the last 60 days. By comparison, at this moment in 2016 there were 106 resale properties for sale, 24 pending sales, but 19 closed sales in the preceding 60 days. We can surmise that 2017’s dropoff in sales would be because of Hurricane Irma – the sales that would have closed in the last 60 days would have been newly pending sales in September if not for the interruption of Hurricane Irma and her aftermath.
What economic trends are there that can give us a glimpse into 2018? If Congress passes any tax reform how will that impact real estate in the US and in Southwest Florida? Aside from this outcome, luxury real estate should be in demand. Some math says there is 5 trillion more wealth on paper than there was a year ago. This, of course, bodes well for Southwest Florida’s buying demographic as the luxury buyers have economic confidence thanks to bolstered portfolios. Perhaps the data reflects this – for our region over the last 12 months the Naples Board of Realtors reports a 1% increase in pending sales, a 4% increase in closed sales, a median closed sale price increase of 3%, all resulting in inventory being down 8%.
And Florida is projected to continue to grow and reach a population of 22 million by 2020. New arrivals include those seeking retirement havens or those gravitating towards an increasingly business-friendly environment. Specifically, Southwest Florida remains among the fastest growing population centers in the country and state. These new arrivals can’t all fit inside Bonita Bay, so there will be continued growth and development further inland and to the north. But by moving to locales with new construction these folks will sacrifice special aspects of living closer to the Gulf and southern parts of the state.
Time will tell to what degree these factors will drive real estate activity in Bonita Bay in 2018. As we all know Bonita Bay maintains the benefits of the community parks and activities, proximity to the Gulf, and the Club’s ever improving amenities. Try as they may, buyers in 2018 and beyond will not find this combination anywhere else!