Jeff & Becky Jaarda, Broker-Associates, John R. Wood Properties
January 2026
Happy New Year. As the calendar turns to January, we enter a new season—both literally and in the real estate market. The key question many are asking is what lies ahead for activity and property values, and whether today’s market can truly serve both buyers and sellers. Increasingly, the answer appears to be yes.
Buyer sentiment in Bonita Bay has historically tracked broader economic confidence and portfolio performance. At present, that backdrop is notably strong. Major equity indices sit at or near all-time highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up approximately 28% since its April pullback, the S&P 500 up roughly 34%, and the Russell 3000 Index up about 35% over similar periods. This “wealth effect” appears to be translating into renewed buyer engagement locally.
Closed sales year-to-date in 2025 are tracking closely with 2024 levels, but recent momentum is clearly accelerating. In the 90 days prior to this writing, Bonita Bay recorded 58 pending sales and 36 closed sales, compared to 38 pending and 26 closed sales over the same period last year. That increase is meaningful. Inventory levels have risen modestly but remain balanced, providing buyers with options without tipping the market into oversupply. Importantly, buyers are responding positively to pricing that has adjusted from the extraordinary pandemic and post-pandemic years.
This raises a timely question for sellers: are we on the cusp of a more active 2026 season? For owners whose circumstances indicate it is time to sell, the path to success is increasingly clear. The bidding wars and record-setting prices of 2021 through 2023 are firmly in the rearview mirror. Current sale prices confirm this reality, and—with few exceptions—properties that are not aligned with today’s market pricing have struggled to sell.
Some sellers express a preference to wait a year or more in hopes that conditions improve. History offers perspective here. Bonita Bay experienced a rapid price run-up from 2004 to 2005, driven by easy credit and speculative demand, followed by a sharp correction. More recently, the pandemic produced another extraordinary surge. Outside of such rare catalysts, price recoveries tend to occur gradually over time, not suddenly. One of our clients, who had owned his Bonita Bay home since the 1990s and lived through multiple cycles, chose to sell last year after observing the market closely. As he signed the contract, he remarked, “This only makes sense. These things take years to come back.” His perspective reflects a seasoned understanding of market cycles.
And while markets do recover over time, today’s environment presents a compelling window. Buyers are active, and sellers can capitalize on that demand—reducing carrying costs, unlocking equity, and redeploying capital toward the next chapter of their lives.
Beyond real estate, Bonita Bay continues to enhance its appeal. Folks are enjoying the community’s exceptional grounds and social offerings, the new beach facility, the reopening of the Creekside golf course, and much more. If your plans for 2026 include a real estate transaction, we believe the opportunities ahead—when approached with clear expectations and sound strategy—can be both rewarding and timely.